Coping with uncertainty
Issue editor: Marie-Josèphe Carrieu-Costa.

 
Editorial
Pierre Couveinhes

 
Foreword: Humanity’s quest for certitudes: Between belief and knowledge
Marie-Josèphe Carrieu-Costa

A few theoretical aspects of uncertainty

 
Conceiving extreme events
Jean-Pierre Dupuy

The uncertainty related to extreme events, whether natural or moral, entails a set of completely new concepts. Convinced that words possess a wisdom that those who utter them might lack, the author has yielded to the temptation of mentioning the controversy surrounding the etymology of “risk”. There are those, who, like Wartburg, derive this strange word from risco, an old Italian word stemming from resecum in Latin, which means “what cuts”, whence the meanings: a “crag”, “reef” and, finally, a “risk to merchandise transported by ship”, hence, an accident. But there are also those who, like Guiraud, think “There is not the least evidence for this nautical story.” They derive the word from rixare (“to quarrel”) in Latin. A risk is what emerges from human strife when, as Clausewitz theorized, a conflict reaches extreme proportions, and fate indifferently condemns the violent parties to mutual destruction. It will be increasingly hard to tell moral and natural catastrophes apart… an outstanding apocalyptical lesson.

 
A few points to bear in mind when thinking about uncertainty in the history of sciences and ideas
Alexandre Moatti

Uncertainty has always gone hand in hand with the progress of science and industry. The fear of uncertainty is the dark side of any creation or innovation. One attitude kindles another — anticipation and foresight are driving forces in innovation and imaginary creations, but also in regressions and safety “precautions” with the risk, in turn, of paralyzing society. This ambivalence toward science repeatedly crops up, and even feeds on science. Its roots run through the Enlightenment (Rousseau) and utopian philosophies (Fourier). Radical philosophies are now working out this theory, for instance James Lovelock’s Gaia hypothesis or Arne Naess’s deep ecology.

Probability and uncertainty
Ms Dominique Deprins

Contemporary debates about controlling uncertainty and risk center on probability. The question of risk and its assessment has moved far beyond its initial setting — law, medicine, insurance and industry — and gradually penetrated all fields of human activity, from the public sphere to the most intimate aspects of our private lives. The “precautionary logic”, now present in all scientific, technological and ethical discussions, is ultimately grounded on illusions, such as “zero risk” and its correlate, absolute knowledge. Calculating probabilities, a major issue in controlling uncertainty, is based on the paradigm of precaution and the precautionary principle of better-safe-than-sorry. What is the nature of this omnipresent probability? Has the probability inaugurated in 1654 by Pascal (known as the “geometry of hazard” but barely noticed at the time) been erroneously interpreted? The heritage of probability is examined, along with its dangers for the precautious. What role does probability play in our times of uncertainty?

 
The concept of risk and its evolution
Gilles Motet

The concept of risk lies at the center of questions, procedures and techniques related to safety and security. The meaning given to it has evolved, forcing a continual re-evaluation of previous questions, procedures and techniques. We must understand this evolution in order to evaluate the position to be adopted when tackling questions of safety. The currently wide divergence of opinions about the aforementioned questions, procedures or techniques results from differences in the interpretations of “risk” made by various parties. Diverse viewpoints are sometimes combined, thus making our analyses confused, and our conclusions erroneous or discordant. The intention is not to submit these viewpoints (each party defending its own interests) to a value judgment, but rather to shed light on them, so as to clearly perceive each position and be capable of assessing its incidence on our approach to questions of safety and security.

 
Uncertainty, an omnipresent factor

 
What about risk management given the constitutionalized “principle of precaution”?
Olivier Godard

On 1 March 2005, the President promulgated the Charter of the Environment as part of the French Constitution. Article 5 enshrines the principle of precaution in the Constitution: “When the realization of a damage, even though uncertain in the current state of scientific knowledge, might seriously and irreversibly affect the environment, public authorities will see to it, by applying the principle of precaution and within the scope of their powers, that procedures of risk assessment are implemented and that temporary, proportional measures are adopted to ward off the realization of the damage.” This put an end to three years of discussions and controversy about the status to be given to the principle of preventing and managing potential, hypothetical or suspected risks, which, neither confirmed nor disconfirmed, should not — experience has taught us — be ignored lest there be a possibly very serious impact on the environment and public health.

Investing in defense faced with uncertainty
Carl Trémoureux

Given the duration of military equipment, uncertainty lies at the core of investments in defense. Besides the technological aspects of defense (the question of “how”), it is impossible to develop every type of system. A choice must be made; and this brings to the forefront the question of “why” choose one option instead of another. According to the white paper on defense and national security, the “international context as a whole calls for taking into account strategic uncertainty as the basis of reflections on France’s defense and of security policies […] Underlying a new strategic function ranked as a priority, knowledge and anticipation form our first line of defense, guaranteeing our autonomy of decision-making and enabling us to maintain our strategic initiative.” This paper places the question of anticipating threats to our security and autonomy in relation to the limits of our knowledge. This often implies an approach for making sense of problems.

 
Chemical risks and their management
Armand Lattes

Chemistry essentially seeks to discover and invent new chemicals useful for society and fundamental for improving humanity’s living conditions. This discipline, though indispensable, is a risky science that has often caused harm. The use of chemicals forces us to assess the risks once a new product is designed or a new application made. The ideas of danger and risk are often not clearly separated. Let us simplify by saying that the danger of a chemical is its possible negative effects (explosion, pollution, etc.) whereas risk refers to the probability of exposure to this danger.

 
Working in uncertainty
Pierre-Michel Menger

In classical economics, work is normally calculated as a negative value and restrictively qualified as a disutility (or negative utility), i.e., the sacrifice of a person’s energy in exchange for wages and the consumer goods affordable thanks to wages. Leisure and consumer goods are the sources of individual satisfaction and well-being, whereas work is a form of negative consumption. A diametrically opposite view exists that sees work as a typically positive value involving the person’s creativity and self-expression. The positive value of work is celebrated by a current of thought that insists on the extra-economic reality of authentically inventive activities. This is the ideally desirable form of work.

How to cope with uncertainty?

Technological uncertainty
Sven Ove Hanson

Given the accelerating speed of technological developments, it is ever clearer how little we know about our future. We do not know what new technology will develop in the near future, nor do we know how technological changes will affect our lives, societies and the natural environment. Efforts have been made to reduce the degree of uncertainty, for example through technological assessment and risk analysis, which emerged during the 1960s. However these disciplines have encountered considerable difficulties, as explained herein. How to cope with the uncertainties related to future technology?

 
From uncertainty as an obstacle to productive uncertainty: How to handle the potential risks of nano-objects?
Brice Laurent

Many questions are arising in administrative circles about the risks related to manufactured nano-objects. Nano-objects can be defined as atomic assemblages that, with at least one nanometric dimension, owe specific properties to their size. These substances are now used in several industrial processes and products: carbon nanotubes, fullerenes, titan dioxide, nanoparticles of silver or gold. Besides the risks related to worker safety, there are — given the presence of nano-objects in several ordinary products — potential risks for consumers, not to mention the unknown effects on the natural environment.

 
From uncertainty to precaution: The role of metrology
Jean-Luc Laurent and Benoît Gaumont

Many decisions are based on measuring, but measurements involve a degree of uncertainty. To establish a decision’s relevance, uncertainty must be brought under control — an excellent way to proceed toward an intelligent interpretation of measurements. Anyone using measurements must become aware of the reliability and quality of the information used. Along with reliable, stable standards, controlling uncertainty is one of the two basic issues in metrology. A broad approach is presented to show how metrology enables a manufacturer or a society to control the process of measuring. To obtain knowledge, a number often has to be set through the act of measuring, which cannot be imagined without a standard unit and a measuring instrument. This is the grounds of metrology. It is not just a special discipline in physics or chemistry but the very basis of everyday activities. Like someone speaking in prose without knowing it, we are all using metrology without really being aware of it.

Risk and futurology
Thierry Gaudin

Whether futurological studies have a “hard” origin in the army, as in the United States, or a “soft”, civilian origin in planning, as in France, they present scenarios for the long run so that society can foresee risks and, if possible, avoid them or prepare to alleviate the consequences. The current situation is critical, the old concept of defense being set opposite a more global conception of security.