Dominique Dron

Concern about the climate is increasing not just because recent scientific research indicates that climatic modifications are already menacing us, but also because it hooks up with the especially sensitive issue of the energy supply, in particular petroleum and natural gas. These two challenges are converging toward the period between 2020 and 2050, when decisive actions will have to have been taken for transforming current technology and organizations. The interaction between these two issues is described, along with the existing means for preparing for the transition in the energy supply. Information is drawn from the state of scientific knowledge about the climate as reported during international negotiations — in particular, information about the key factors discussed during the most recent round of talks in New Delhi in November 2002, organized as part of the UN Convention on Climate Change.
 

What would a “carbon-sober” society be like? A glimpse of programs outside France

Mark Tuddenham

The Interministerial Mission on the Greenhouse Effect (MIES) has conducted an exploratory study on the current state of research outside France using long-term simulations (2050) of socioeconomic systems that would “soberly” emit greenhouse gases. The intentions were: to identify and analyze trends given objectives for reducing CO2 emissions; to thus bring to light interesting, useful points; to stimulate and enlighten political debates in France; and to orient national decision-making. Though not claiming to be exhaustive, this study does provide a detailed overall account about countries such as the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland and Iceland. The options and actions advocated in this study are reported herein. France’s neighbors have set ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gases to a sober level by 2050 — goals accompanied with policies and measures grounded in simulations. They have thus worked out a vision of their society in 2050 and have defined trajectories for getting there.
 

Jean-Charles Hourcade and Philippe Quirion

Since the summer of 2002, many essayists and journalists have been presenting the Kyoto Protocol as dangerously aberrant. According to them, reducing greenhouse gases would bear huge costs and, in any case, be ineffective. To counter this point of view, information is drawn from scientific articles summarized in the third report by the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Change, whose operation is described. The costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol are small or even negative under condition that adapted policies be used to implement it and that the benefits in terms of the local environment, the security of the energy supply and a decrease in international tensions enter into account. In the long run, the objective of the UN’s International Convention on Climate Change — stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerously disrupting the climate system due to human activities — is not out of reach. We do not know at present what concentrations would meet this objective. By taking into account the risk of “non-linearities in damage”, targets usually thought to be overambitious could be set for rationally applying the principle of precaution.
 

Perceptions and attitudes of the French about the greenhouse effect

François Moisan

ADEME conducts a yearly survey of a representative sample of the French population in order to assess perceptions of the greenhouse effect and to gauge people’s willingness to change everyday activities so as to limit the emission of greenhouse gases. A first series of questions tries to identify how the French perceive and understand phenomena related to the greenhouse effect. Their opinions are collected about the means to fight against this effect and, in particular, about the actions they would be able to undertake personally. The 2002 survey, its major results presented herein, tried to assess the degree of acceptability of definite measures for fighting against the greenhouse effect.This sort of opinion poll should bring to light certain presuppositions underlying people’s expectations and perhaps lead us to bear in mind the long term while imagining more ambitious changes in our life-styles. 
 

Matthieu Glachant

The amount of household garbage has not stopped increasing — more than 12,5% over the past decade — despite the July 1992 waste act in France, which set a priority of decreasing wastes. How to reverse this trend and motivate various parties to reduce garbage at the origin? An approach based on price-setting has grounds in the economic principle of internalizing costs. Once producers and households who can prevent wastes bear the costs of what happens following consumption, they will be stimulated to avert part of the costs by reducing wastes. This principle entails introducing green taxes to handle many environmental questions; but the problem is not raised in these terms herein. A price-setting system for certain categories already exists via the garbage collection tax, waste-collection fees and the contributions of certified companies. But these arrangements were designed to cover the bookkeeping costs of the public service of garbage collection. How might they be modified so as, in addition, to provide incentives to households or companies for preventing wastes?
 

Nuclear energy for civilian uses given the prospects of a changing climate
A report by Robert Dautray analyzed by 

Michel Turpin

The worrisome issues resulting from the civilian use of nuclear energy are subjected to a scientific analysis in R. Dautray’s report. They include: the risks of accidents and radiation, the question of nuclear wastes (in particular, plutonium and actinides), and the dangers of atomic weapons proliferating or nuclear plants being menaced by terrorists. The nuclear industry will not be able to go on unless it comes up with solutions acceptable to citizens. Even if the decision were made to put an end to nuclear power plants, a solution would have to be found for putting an end to the aftereffects. According to this report, it is indispensable to have a base of knowledge accepted by all if we are to weigh various proposals and make decisions. It contends that the program under way in France since the 1991 Bataille Act should, for the 2006 deadline, set as its main objective to define “a general criterion of protection and confidence of the concerned workers and populations, a criterion worked out by their elected representatives, thus by public authorities”. The report’s author has proposed points for drawing up such a criterion.