Olivier Godard

On 23 July 2003, the Council of the European Union drew up a proposal for a directive introducing tradeable allowances for CO2 emissions. Member state now have to do what is necessary to enforce it in January 2005. It is, therefore, time to examine the economic efficiency and fairness of the ways to initially allocate emission allowances. An explanation is provided of why the choice of rules for this allocation will not significantly affect the current operation of the allowances and product markets under condition that these markets be active and competitive. This choice will, however, affect the ability of firms to finance future developments from their own funds. The economic efficiency of emission allowances faces three threats: governments taking back allowances when a plant closes; allocation criteria counterproductively interfering with emission-reduction strategies in systems based on a regularly scheduled allocation of allowances; and free allowances being granted to new firms in order to superficially satisfy fair trade requirements. Regulating initial allocations on the basis of a firm’s prior voluntary commitments while granting firms additional allowances for actions meeting up to these commitments would be arbitrary and contrary to fair trade.

Oil crises and counter-crises (1960-2060)

Pierre Radanne

The supply of fossil fuels was already an intensely debated issue in the early 1970s with a “practice drill” shortly thereafter, namely the 1973 and 1979 oil crises. The lower price of petroleum in 1986 — a “counter-crisis” — soothed fears about the depletion of fuel sources. This subject then fell into neglect. More efficiently tapping oil fields and discovering new ones is supposed to keep up with an increasing oil consumption for a long time. Besides, the overcapacity and low price of energy along with deregulation foster a general sense of plenitude. This topic is now coming back under discussion among experts. Some of them think that conventional and nonconventional sources of fossil fuels are pushing the deadline for supply-side difficulties several centuries away. Others predict that a historic moment (between 2015 and 2030) is nearing when the production of natural gas and oil is going to peak. These two arguments present simplistic views of oil market trends. The deeply cyclical vision presented herein foresees alternating periods of crises and recovery.
 

Xavier Poux and Guillaume Olive

A broader frame of analysis must be worked out to handle the relation between agriculture and the greenhouse effect. The scope and relevance of “standard” agricultural responses are brought under consideration by drawing attention to topics overlooked in usual arguments. Is it worthwhile to propose a global analytical framework for reformulating the problem of adapting farming to climatic change? This framework integrates the economic, organizational, structural, social and political factors to analyze in relation to the climate. A “standard” agricultural scenario based on biofuels and a simplification of farming techniques is not necessarily the best from a general point of view. Instead, an alternative development of agriculture that takes into account the global greenhouse effect seems to hold more promise. The arguments advanced herein come out of a prospective analysis that the Piren Seine research project has made of farming. The methodology used to construct “agricultural scenarios” is discussed as well as its relation to climatic change. A “standard” scenario is worked out for the Seine River Basin in France. In conclusion, the issues thus raised are broadened to the general relations between agriculture and climatic change.

Feedback on floods in southern France (September 2002)

Philippe Huet

n 36 hours from Sunday afternoon on 8 September 2002 to Monday, more than two billion tons of water fell on Gard and five neighboring departments in southern France. The toll: 24 deaths and more than a billion euros in damage. In this context, the minister of Ecology and Sustainable Development asked for feedback on the following seven points: a description of the event, an identification of the factors worsening its effects, an assessment of the policy of issuing warnings, an analysis of the contents and understanding of these warnings, an assessment of plans for risk prevention and urbanism, an examination of building techniques, and a study of the effects of hydraulic installations. The procedures for inspections carried out following successive catastrophes during the past decade have improved. The three phases in the procedure used in Gard Department are described along with the interest and limits of this method and the progress still to be made.

Frédéric Marcel and Éric Vindimian

Installing or modifying an industrial plant depends on an administrative authorization that entails carrying out an environmental impact study, which is intended to foresee the eventual effects on ecosystems, on areas around the plant and on the health of people living nearby. Given pressure from public opinion, this last point has come under ever closer scrutiny. Public opinion wants guarantees for health and wants information to be published about serious health risks related to certain factories. Regulatory authorities have asked experts to propose a method for evaluating health risks in studies of the impact of classified installations. Teams at INERIS (Institut National d’Études des Risques Industriels) have concentrated on this subject thanks to this institute’s experience in the field. This experience is shared herein so as to concisely explain major methodological issues in assessing health risks in impact assessments.